The great run continued last week, going 7-2-3. The Green Bay line went down to -4 or even -3.5 and became a best bet. I said it last week and I'll say it again. Even though I am 19-5-3 over the past three weeks, this run will not continue. I hope I am wrong again, like I was last week, but at some point I will be right. Continue to respect your bankroll and keep this in mind.
All side opinions went 7-6-3 last week and are now 90-76-8 54% over the first twelve weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it's more important to look at each team's last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NY GIANTS -3 Buffalo 35
Two teams who have underachieved greatly this year. In a battle of such, I like to lean towards the dog with the better defense. I really wanted to play Buffalo here but I just don't have enough on them to make them an official play. This Buffalo defense has really played well this year, allowing more than 17 points only three times. They allowed Kansas City 38 points but they can be excused for that. They allowed the Jets 30 points but that was more the result of a -4 turnover ratio and they were playing without Eric Moulds. The offense completely collapsed in that game. And they allowed Philadelphia 23 points. Everything else has been 17 points or less. Unfortunately, for them, their high flying offense has been just the opposite. Early in the season, they weren't able to rush the ball but that is not the case as of late, as they are now averaging 4.5 ypr against teams allowing 4.5 ypr over their last five games. After having only one game of 100+ yards in their first six games, they have now rushed for at least 100 yards in each of their last five games. But the passing offense has been horrible, averaging just 4.3 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games, allowing 13 sacks during that time. The Buffalo defense is allowing just 4.4 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games. For the Giants, it is the same thing each week. They typically out play their opponent but end up losing on the scoreboard because of turnovers. That wasn't the case last week as they were out played by Tampa Bay. Over their last five games, the Giants are only gaining 5.2 yppl against 5.4 yppl but their defense has played well, allowing just 4.8 yppl against 5.4 yppl. Buffalo qualifies in a couple of great situations this week. They qualify in a contrary situation, which is 298-213-11 (11-6-1 TY), including going 5-1 last week. They also qualify in another contrary situation, which plays on bad teams going on the road after playing at home, which is 109-56-5 (3-1 TY). The Giants do qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 136-54-8 (8-4-1 TY) as long as they are a favorite of four or less points. Final numbers do favor the Giants by seven points (all games) and by eight points (last five games). They also only predict about 34 points (all games) and 26 points (last five games). This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 76-43-1. The number is a little too low for me to play the under but I lean that way. BUFFALO 17 NY GIANTS 14
BALTIMORE -3 San Francisco 37
I was very fortunate last week to get a push out of the Baltimore game. I actually won that game because I bought the three down to 2.5 but I called it a push on the record. That game last week was very evenly played. Baltimore averaged 4.3 ypr to 4.2 for Seattle. They averaged 6.4 yps to 6.1 yps for Seattle and both teams had six sacks and totaled 426 yards of offense. It's obviously very hard to take San Francisco, knowing they have played so poorly on the road, this year and in previous years (see last week's post). And with last week's loss at Green Bay, San Francisco is now 0-5 this year on the road. No question the Baltimore defense is playing well, and despite a bit of a debacle last week, they are still allowing just 4.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games, including being well above average against both, the run and the pass. They'll face a SF offense, which has been playing well as of late, averaging 5.5 yppl against 5.0 yppl over their last five games, including being well above average with both, the run and the pass. On defense, SF has slipped below average over their last five games, allowing 5.4 yppl against 5.1 yppl and being below average against both, the run and the pass. The Baltimore offense has also been below average over their last five games, gaining just 4.6 yppl against 5.0 yppl. They have been well below average throwing the ball, although getting better than their season long stats, but the rushing game has come back to earth. They are still above average rushing the ball, gaining 4.1 ypr against 3.8 ypr but that's a far cry from where they were not too long ago. It remains to be seen if the Anthony Wright to Marcus Robinson connection will continue to roll or not. Baltimore's poor defensive effort last week qualifies them in a 69-28-4 situation that plays against them here. SF also qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 298-213-11. Baltimore almost qualifies in a 75-32-3 fundamental rushing situation, which is close enough to keep me off of SF in this game. Final ratings suggest a pick 'em (all games) and SF by three (last five games). I will lean that way because of the situations and the value despite the poor performance of SF on the road this year and in the past. SAN FRANCISCO 20 BALTIMORE 17
PITTSBURGH -3 Cincinnati 41.5
I went against Cincinnati last week and lost that play but I would make that play again and still feel it was the right play. I'm still not sure how Cincinnati won that game, allowing 5.9 ypr to San Diego, 5.9 yps and 5.9 yppl, while only averaging 5.3 yppl themselves and losing the turnover battle 0-1. I guess the fact they ran 85 plays and were able to protect their defense by keeping them off the field greatly helped their team. But, I don't think they will move the ball as well this week against the much better run defense of the Steelers. The Cincinnati offense racked up 225 rushing yards at 5.0 ypr last week but they are still only averaging 4.0 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. They are throwing the ball well, averaging 6.4 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games and will take on a Steelers defense, which is allowing 6.9 yps against 6.0 yps. The Steelers rush defense continues to play well, allowing just 3.4 ypr against 4.1 ypr over their last five games. The Steelers offense continues to play poorly, averaging just 4.5 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games. And despite winning last week's game at Cleveland, they only gained 168 yards at 2.9 yppl. But, they have a chance to play much better this week against a poor Cincinnati defense, which is allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.3 ypr, 6.5 yps against 5.7 yps and 5.7 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games. Pittsburgh has defeated Cincinnati in seven of the past ten years here in Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh qualifies in a contrary situation, which plays on teams who are not covering the spread against teams who are covering the spread. That situation is now 274-178-21 (9-3-2 TY). Remember, teams who are not covering the spread, when playing teams who are covering the spread, are very profitable investments. There's more to it than just that, but if you simply remember this, you will be a much smarter player in the future. As you would expect, final numbers support Cincinnati by three points (all games) and by five points (last five games) but I've said it before and I will say it again. The situations are much more important than the value. Think about this for a second. If teams who do not cover the spread are good investments against teams who do cover the spread, it's pretty unlikely you are ever going to get great value with these teams, when compared to your own line, because they are under performing. This game also sets up in two different under situations, which are terrific situations. Those situations are 145-72-2 (6-2 TY) and 300-223-11 (14-7 TY). My final numbers suggest about 42 points (all games) and 46 points (last five games). I can't get myself to play the under here because both teams play such poor pass defense, but that should be enough to keep you off the over in this game. PITTSBURGH 24 CINCINNATI 17
INDIANAPOLIS -4 New England 43.5
I have no situations on the side on this game but it should be a terrific game. I find it very hard to take a Colts team, laying points, knowing they are allowing 4.7 ypr against 4.1 ypr over their last five games, and allowing 125 yards per game for the whole season. NE might not be able to take full advantage of that, seeing they are gaining just 3.2 ypr against 3.8 ypr over their last five games, but Indy has allowed eight of their last nine opponents to gain at least 110 yards rushing. On the flip side, NE gained at least 105 yards rushing in four of their first five games this year but have only done it once in their last six games. That one game was last week against Houston. It took an OT to win their game last week but NE actually dominated that game, averaging 5.1 yppl to just 2.9 yppl for Houston and gaining 472 total yards to just 169 for Houston. The key match-ups for this game are the Indy passing offense, which is averaging 7.9 yps against 6.3 yps going against a NE pass defense, which is allowing just 5.1 yps against 5.6 yps over each of their last five games. On the other side, it is the NE passing offense, which has played terrific this year, averaging 7.3 yps against 5.7 yps going against an Indy pass defense, which is allowing 6.4 yps against 6.1 yps. That match-up greatly favors NE here. My ratings favor Indy by 4.5 (all games) and by only a .5 point (last five games). This game also qualifies in two outstanding under situations, which are 145-72-2 (6-2 TY) and 225-121-6 (9-4 TY). Knowing how much these two teams like to throw the ball, I have a hard time taking the under. My final numbers also show about 49 points (all games) and 50 points (last five games) thus making it even harder to take the under. But, these again, should be enough to keep you off the over. NEW ENGLAND 23 INDIANAPOLIS 20
CHICAGO -4.5 Arizona 36.5
I'm getting back on the Arizona train this week. I rode this to a cover last week but also had them two weeks ago in Cleveland, where they were blown out 6-44. As a matter of fact, they have been blown out in all five of their road games, losing by an average of 22 points per game and not coming any closer than 13 points in any road game. So, why would I take them in this game? I still feel they are a decent team and I'm just not sure Chicago is quite good enough to pull away from them here. And, of course, there are numerous situations applying to Arizona this week. Arizona continues to rush the ball well, averaging 4.2 ypr against 4.0 ypr and they played terrific last week, rushing for 166 yards at 5.5 ypr. The rush defense continues to play well too, allowing just 3.7 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. They've only allowed four teams to rush for more than 100 yards this year (St. Louis twice, Seattle and Baltimore). Chicago has allowed eight of eleven teams this year to rush for more than 100 yards and Arizona stands a chance to do it in this game if they stick to the run and avoid the turnovers. The weakness to the Arizona defense has been their pass defense, which is allowing 6.4 yps against 5.9 yps but it's doubtful a Chicago pass offense can take advantage of that. The Bears are averaging just 5.0 yps against 5.8 yps and their rushing offense hasn't been much better, gaining just 3.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr. With Chris Chandler in there, the Bears pass offense has improved some but their rushing offense has slipped some. If Chandler doesn't play this week, that will play into Arizona's hands even more, because they defend the run much better. Arizona qualifies in a great contrary situation, which is 298-213-11 (11-6-1 TY) and they qualify in my turnover table system, which is 769-597-32. That situation indicates they might be able to avoid playing turnover ball today. Arizona also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 523-402-32 (34-22-3 TY), including a subset, which is 242-138-13 (14-7-2 TY). They also qualify in another rushing situation, which is 237-160-14, including a win by Miami on Thursday. My numbers favor the Bears by four (all games) and by 8.5 points (last five games) but the situations are simply too strong to not play Arizona here. This game also qualifies in a 76-43-1 under situation. Final numbers suggest about 38 points (all games) and 31 points (last five games). I don't like going under with such a low total but that is the way to lean here. ARIZONA 20 CHICAGO 13
CAROLINA -1.5 Philadelphia 36
Philly has played great as of late, winning and covering in six straight. But, that actually sets them up in a letdown situation, which is a 62-26-4 play against situation. The Carolina defense is finally getting healthy and starting to play much better, allowing just 3.7 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 6.0 yps against 6.4 yps for a total of just 5.0 yppl against 5.3 yppl. Meanwhile, the Philly offense is also playing very well over their last five games, averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 6.0 yps against 6.0 yps, which totals out to 5.2 yppl against 5.3 yppl. That makes them just an average offense but that is pretty good considering where this offense was earlier in the year. Much will be made about the Philly rush defense, which is allowing 4.9 ypr against 4.6 ypr and taking on the Carolina rush offense, which is averaging actually just 4.3 ypr against 4.5 ypr over their last five games. It's been the Carolina passing offense, which has really excelled lately, averaging 7.1 yps against 6.1 yps. During that time, Philly is allowing just 5.1 yps against 5.7 yps. Carolina will be able to rush the ball because they commit to it and Philly hasn't done much to stop it as of late, but Carolina should also be able to throw the ball some if they wish to. Philly has allowed at least 109 yards rushing in each of their last seven games. Meanwhile, Carolina has rushed for at least 110 yards in all but three of their games. Philly also qualifies in another letdown situation, which is a 170-123-5 play against situation. Carolina is also a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32 and they qualify in a subset of that, which is 140-78-5. Carolina also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 136-54-8 (8-4-1 TY). Final ratings suggest a 3.5 point Carolina win (all games) to a two point Philly win (last five games). Situations are simply too strong to not play Carolina here and they get the big win at home. CAROLINA 23 PHILADELPHIA 13
ST LOUIS -6 Minnesota 51
I had been waiting for this game for a few weeks now. I was anticipating a big play on both, the Rams and the over. But, now that the game is here, I have solid situations on both teams and actually a solid situation on the under, which eliminates all plays for me. You can go back to the Vikings game against San Diego, where I mentioned the horrible defensive performances the Vikings have had on the road, going back to late in the 2000 season. Nothing has changed this year with their defense, which has allowed at least 26 points in every road game but one (13 points allowed at Detroit). I've also made it a habit of going against each of these teams lately, going against the Rams each of the last two weeks and winning both, and going against the Vikings each of the past three weeks and winning all three times. The Rams have been very solid throwing the ball, averaging 6.8 yps against 6.1 yps over their last five games, but they haven't been able to run the ball very well, averaging just 3.3 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. It should be noted they have averaged 4.5 ypr and 229 yards rushing on 51 carries in their last two games. So, maybe Marshall Faulk is getting it going. And they should have plenty of success against a Vikings defense, which is allowing 5.7 ypr against 4.8 ypr and 7.1 yps against 5.5 yps over their last five games. It's been well documented how slow the Vikings are on defense and that should only be more emphasized this week against a very fast Rams offense. For Minnesota, their offense has been a little more average over the last five games, but it is still averaging 7.2 yps against 6.2 yps and 4.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr. They'll go against a Rams defense, which is allowing 4.3 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 5.5 yps against 5.5 yps. The Rams offense is a little better than average but that's head and shoulders above how bad the Vikings defense is. The Rams defense is just average, although better at home and should be able to contain the Vikings offense many more times than the Vikings defense can contain the Rams offense. Everybody saw how badly the Rams were out played in their Sunday night game against the Ravens, in which they only gained 121 total yards. But they still managed to score 33 points because of special teams and defensive scores, etc. The Rams have scored at least 27 points in every home game this year and at least 33 points in all but one home game. As said earlier, the Vikings have allowed at least 26 points in all but one road game. Minnesota has only played two above average offenses on the road this year, Green Bay (allowed 25 points) and San Diego (allowed 42 points). In the GB game, they forced five Packer turnovers, which hurt their chances of scoring. It's almost a given, barring a majority of turnovers, that the Rams will put up at least 35 points in this game. Against somewhat similar defenses on the road this year (Green Bay and Detroit - average), the Vikings have scored 30 and 23 points. If you can write the Rams down for about 35 points in this game and you know the Vikings probably aren't going to score more than about 27 points, it will be awful tough for the Vikings to cover this game. I've been going against Minnesota because I believe they are over rated and their defense isn't very good, but that was when they were laying points. This game is more like last year, when I frequently went with the Vikings, because they were getting points with their good offense. Minnesota does qualify in a terrific contrary situation, which is 108-40-5. The Vikings also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 88-28-5. But, the Rams qualify in a scheduling situation, which plays on good teams returning home after a road trip, which is 42-16-1 and they also qualify in a turnover table subset, which is 140-78-5. Final numbers do favor Minnesota but I like the situations the Rams qualify in, along with the poor performance of the Vikings on the road. As for the total, this game qualifies in a 300-223-11 under situation, which is already 14-7 this year. Final numbers suggest about 53-60 points being scored but I respect the situations much more than the numbers. Mike Tice said this week his team needs to run the ball and control the game with short passes. That means they could run some clock with their offense to keep their defense off the field. He also said he expected the Rams to try and run the ball as well and the Vikings would look to take away the run to force Mike Martz (whom he said will abandon the run very quickly) to throw the ball and take advantage of mistakes by Mark Bulger. A lot of running could result in a lower scoring game. The bottom line to this game is this. Both teams qualify in good situations and there is also a solid situation on the under. That's just opposite of what most think will happen and with the NFL being a contrarian league, this game might be best if avoided. ST LOUIS 30 MINNESOTA 17
HOUSTON -3 Atlanta 41
Interesting game here between two very poor defenses and two offenses that stand a chance to move the ball. The Atlanta defense is now allowing 4.8 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 7.7 yps against 6.4 yps over their last five games. It's not much different with the Houston defense, which is allowing 4.5 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 7.9 yps against 6.9 yps. On offense, Atlanta is running the ball very well, averaging 5.2 ypr against 4.8 ypr. They aren't throwing the ball very well, averaging just 4.6 yps against 5.5 yps but they did throw for 7.6 yps last week against Tennessee. If you take away the 86 yard screen pass to Warrick Dunn, they averaged closer to about 5.1 yps. But, that should continue to get better with Doug Johnson, who replaced Kurt Kittner last week. For Houston, they are also running the ball well, averaging 4.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 6.3 yps against 6.1 yps over their last five games. We have two well below average defenses and an above average offense with Houston along with a potentially above average offense with Atlanta. Yet, the total is just 41, which is one point below the average points scored in the NFL this year. There aren't many defenses as bad as these two in the league. Atlanta has played just one defense that is close to this bad and they scored 26 points against the Vikings defense. Houston has only played one defense, which is even close to this bad, and that was Cincinnati, where they scored 27 points. And the Cincinnati defense is better than this Atlanta defense. My final numbers predict about 49 points (all games) and 42 points (last five games) but some of those games were with Kurt Kittner, who absolutely couldn't throw the ball. I have no situations on either team for the side in this game but I prefer to take the points when two poor defenses play. Final ratings suggest Houston by 1.5 (all games) and three points (last five games). ATLANTA 30 HOUSTON 27
WASHINGTON -1 New Orleans 41
Total number two for the week. I was also looking for a reason to play NO in this game but I don't have quite enough ammunition to make them a play. I do like the total here. The Redskins offense isn't playing that great, averaging just 4.2 yppl against 4.6 yppl and below average with both, the run and the pass, but I think they can get something done against the Saints defense. NO is allowing 5.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games, and that includes 5.1 ypr against 4.4 ypr. The Saints have allowed at least 100 yards rushing in all but two games this year. Washington isn't running the ball well but they have gained at least 116 yards rushing in four of their five home games this year, so they do seem to be able to move the ball at home a little more. On the other side, Washington is playing horrible defense, allowing 5.9 yppl against 5.0 yppl over their last five games, including allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 7.3 yps against 5.8 yps. The NO offense is averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.2 ypr over their last five games. The Saints have rushed for at least 100 yards in all but one game this year and the Redskins have now allowed at least 106 yards rushing in every game since their second game this year. The Redskins have also allowed at least 20 points in every game but two this year - the first game against the Jets (whose offense was horrible early on) and 17 points to NE, who turned the ball over three times. I went over in the Redskins/Seahawks game here three weeks ago with a similar total and the final ended up at 47 (27-20) and I think we stand a good chance of getting the over again. My numbers suggest 49 points (all games) and 49 points (last five games). That combined with two below average defenses, when asked to score the average points scored in the NFL this year (42 points) to get the over, looks promising. Saints also qualify as a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32. Final ratings suggest NO by one (all games) and by 7.5 points (last five games). I don't quite have enough to suggest taking NO but I will lean their way. NEW ORLEANS 30 WASHINGTON 20
SEATTLE -5.5 Cleveland 41.5
Cleveland lost last week but not because they couldn't move the ball or stop the Steelers. Cleveland amassed 303 yards of offense, at only 4.0 yppl, which is not good, but they only allowed Pittsburgh to gain 168 yards at 2.9 yppl. The biggest problem for Cleveland was five turnovers and not being able to get the ball into the endzone with four chances inside the five yard line, which is really another turnover. This week they get Seattle who comes off a tough loss at Baltimore after leading by 17 in the fourth quarter before finally losing in OT. That was a game where the refs made an error that would have won the game for Seattle, if not for their error. The Cleveland offense is still below average but they are running the ball better, averaging 4.0 ypr against 4.1 ypr over their last five games. They are still well below average throwing the ball, gaining just 4.9 yps against 6.0 yps during that same time span. But, they face a Seattle defense, which is below average, allowing 4.2 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 5.8 yps against 5.4 yps over their last five games. The Seattle offense has been good, gaining 5.7 yppl against 5.2 yppl and above average with both, the run and the pass. They'll face a Cleveland defense, which has been above average against the pass, allowing 5.7 yps against 6.0 yps, but below average against the run, allowing 4.2 ypr against 4.0 ypr. Seattle, with their poor defensive effort last week, qualifies in a negative situation, which is an 82-40-5 play against them here. Cleveland also qualifies in a bounce back situation, which is a 109-56-6 (3-1 TY) and they are a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32. Cleveland has been a competitive team this year, losing only two games by more than seven points, while Seattle doesn't win many games by blowing away their competition, with only three wins by more than seven points. I like Cleveland's competitiveness and their ability, even though the stats don't show it, to throw the ball for the back door cover, if needed. Final ratings only favor Seattle by five points (all games) and 3.5 points (last five games). The situations favor Cleveland as does the value. CLEVELAND 24 SEATTLE 21
Denver -3 OAKLAND 42
This is a game where the situations go both ways, which ultimately is a pass for me. It's hard to gauge Denver on just their last five games because three of them are without Jake Plummer, but Denver's offense wasn't that spectacular last week, at least not in the passing game, where Plummer is supposed to make the difference. They only threw for 4.2 yps last week. They did break off a couple of big runs and finished the game averaging a whopping 9.5 ypr on 200 yards rushing. But, it still resulted in only 10 points for the Broncos. Denver is running the ball well, averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr but only throwing for 4.9 yps against 5.8 yps. Their defense continues to play well, allowing only 3.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 6.1 yps against 6.3 yps. That doesn't bode well for Oakland this week. Oakland's offense is banged up and not playing particularly well, averaging just 4.0 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 5.5 yps against 5.7 yps. Their defense has also been disappointing, allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 6.6 yps against 6.0 yps. Denver qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32 and they also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 523-402-32 (34-22-3 TY), including a subset, which is 242-138-13 (14-7-2 TY). Denver also qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is a 159-88-8 play against them here. This total seems a little high here as my numbers only show about 37 points (all games) and 36 points (last five games). Oakland has only played one solid defense this year, and that was Denver on the road and they could only score 10 points in that game. I don't see them scoring much more than that here. DENVER 20 OAKLAND 13
Kansas City -7 SAN DIEGO 48.5
I was on SD last week and lost that game but they didn't play that badly, averaging 5.9 yppl in that game, while allowing Cincinnati to average just 5.3 yppl. Meanwhile, KC was winning barely against Oakland but they controlled the majority of that game, and gained 384 yards at 6.5 yppl. But, they also allowed a below average Oakland offense to gain 379 yards at 5.5 yppl. And such is life for the KC defense, which is now allowing 5.1 yppl against 4.9 yppl, including a whopping 5.0 ypr against 4.5 ypr over their last five games. That should sit just fine with a SD offense, which can run the ball, averaging 5.3 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. These two have historically played close games here and SD has only lost two of the past 10 games here by more than five points. I'm still not convinced KC is the best team in the league and since beating Houston badly on the road, they have now gone four straight road games where they have failed to win by more than seven points. Bad teams, at home getting more than five points, are actually a good proposition, and SD qualifies in a situation based on that, which is 56-21-1. KC also qualifies in a letdown situation, which is a 72-38-4 (3-1-1 TY) play against situation here. Chargers are also a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32 and they qualify in a subset of that, which is 122-70-4 (5-1 TY). I've also been saying it for weeks now and that is teams who are not covering the spread, when playing against teams who are covering the spread, are fantastic situations. SD qualifies in a situation based on that, which is 274-178-21 (9-3-2 TY). The Chargers also appear to be able to run the ball in this game and that sets them up in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 113-55-7 (6-3-1 TY) and 523-402-32 (34-22-3 TY), including a subset, which is 424-296-24 (26-13-1 TY). Final numbers show KC by 10 (all games) and by 8.5 (last five games) but that's before accounting for the great situations that SD qualifies in. They qualify in some great technical and fundamental situations and KC qualifies in a negative situation as well. So, we have things working in all directions for us in this game. This game also qualifies in a couple of under situations, which are 49-23 and 300-223-11. My final numbers show about 54 points and 55 points being scored so it's a little tough for me to take the under, especially with two poor defenses, but these situations should at least keep you off the over. KANSAS CITY 24 SAN DIEGO 23
Tampa Bay -3.5 JACKSONVILLE 37
TB kept their playoff hopes alive last week by defeating the Giants. Brett Favre said this week he thinks TB is still the team to beat in the NFC. They'll need some help in getting to the playoffs but TB can throw the ball and they are averaging 5.9 yps against 5.5 yps over their last five games. The defense is still playing above average, allowing just 4.8 yppl against 5.2 yppl. They'll face a Jacksonville team, which did it again last week. That is gaining more yards than their opponent and gaining more yards per play than their opponent. Last week they gained 330 yards at 4.6 yppl to just 282 for the Jets at 4.5 yppl. Turnovers, especially in the red zone did them in again. I've been saying it for weeks now that the Jacksonville defense is very under rated. They are allowing just 5.0 yppl against 5.3 yppl over their last five games 4.9 yppl against 5.2 yppl for the whole season. And remember, they have played some very good offenses, passing offenses (like Tampa Bay), including Indianapolis and Tennessee four times (twice each) and the Jets. TB has struggled on the road lately, losing their last two to Carolina and San Francisco. Jacksonville qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32 and they qualify in three different fundamental rushing situations, which are 113-55-7 (6-3-1 TY), 523-402-32 (34-22-3 TY) and 237-165-14 (7-5 TY). Final numbers only suggest TB by 1.5 (all games) and Jacksonville by three points (last five games). This game also qualifies in two very good over situations, which are 36-12-1 (3-1 TY) and 52-21-1. My final numbers suggest about 35 and 32 points so it's a little hard to take the over, especially with two above average defenses. But, these situations should keep you off the under, as that does not appear to be the right move in this game. JACKSONVILLE 21 TAMPA BAY 17
Tennessee -1.5 NY JETS 42
I thought I finally had a win by going against Tennessee last week, but it was not to be as the Titans came charging back and I actually needed a backdoor score by Atlanta to get the push. But, I'm back on my horse again this week to go against the Titans again. The Tennessee defense is starting to play better, allowing just 4.1 ypr against 4.0 ypr but they are still allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl because teams are having to pass on them playing catch-up ball. They'll face a Jets offense that is really starting to play great ball now. The Jets are now averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games and 6.7 yps against 5.9 yps during that same time span. The Jets defense is much like the Titans defense, about average, allowing 4.2 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 6.2 yps against 6.0 yps. Tennessee's offense doesn't rush the ball as well as the Jets are but they throw the ball better, averaging 3.3 ypr against 3.7 ypr and 8.6 yps against 6.4 yps. The Jets were held below 100 yards rushing last week for the first time in seven games. They allowed 100+ yards rushing for the 10th time in 11 games this year. Tennessee, who doesn't rush the ball for a very good average, is getting rushing yards out of their offense, and they ran for over 100 yards last week for the fifth time in their last six games. They have also allowed only three teams to gain 100+ yards rushing this season. Tennessee qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is a 159-88-8 play against them here. The Jets also qualify in a Monday night situation, which is a 61-26-2 situation. And, like I have been saying, teams that don't cover the spread, when playing teams who do cover the spread, are terrific propositions and the Jets qualify in a situation based on that, which is 274-178-19 (9-3-2 TY). Final numbers suggest a .5 point line for Tennessee (all games) and a two point line for Tennessee (last five games), before accounting for the great situations the Jets qualify in. This game also qualifies in some great under situations, which are 145-72-2 (6-2 TY) and 300-223-11 (14-7 TY). In a game with two very good passing teams and a game where my numbers suggest closer to 47 points (all games) and 57 points (last five games), I can't play the under. But, the situations are there to indicate the right play is the under. That should at least keep you off the over in this game. NY JETS 23 TENNESSEE 17
BEST BETS
YTD 43-27-5 +32.40%
3% ATLANTA/HOUSTON OVER 41
3% NEW ORLEANS/WASHINGTON OVER 41
2% ARIZONA +4.5
2% CAROLINA -1.5
2% CLEVELAND +5.5
2% SAN DIEGO +7
2% JACKSONVILLE +3.5
2% NY JETS +1.5
All side opinions went 7-6-3 last week and are now 90-76-8 54% over the first twelve weeks of the season.
Home team in caps. All records against the spread unless otherwise noted.
I also feel it's more important to look at each team's last five games as opposed to the whole season. Stats listed are for the last five games unless other wise noted.
League averages for comparison to the stats that will be listed below.
Average Points Scored 21.0
Yards Per Rush (YPR) 4.0
Yards Per Pass (YPS) 5.9
Yards Per Play (YPPL) 5.1
NY GIANTS -3 Buffalo 35
Two teams who have underachieved greatly this year. In a battle of such, I like to lean towards the dog with the better defense. I really wanted to play Buffalo here but I just don't have enough on them to make them an official play. This Buffalo defense has really played well this year, allowing more than 17 points only three times. They allowed Kansas City 38 points but they can be excused for that. They allowed the Jets 30 points but that was more the result of a -4 turnover ratio and they were playing without Eric Moulds. The offense completely collapsed in that game. And they allowed Philadelphia 23 points. Everything else has been 17 points or less. Unfortunately, for them, their high flying offense has been just the opposite. Early in the season, they weren't able to rush the ball but that is not the case as of late, as they are now averaging 4.5 ypr against teams allowing 4.5 ypr over their last five games. After having only one game of 100+ yards in their first six games, they have now rushed for at least 100 yards in each of their last five games. But the passing offense has been horrible, averaging just 4.3 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games, allowing 13 sacks during that time. The Buffalo defense is allowing just 4.4 yppl against 5.2 yppl over their last five games. For the Giants, it is the same thing each week. They typically out play their opponent but end up losing on the scoreboard because of turnovers. That wasn't the case last week as they were out played by Tampa Bay. Over their last five games, the Giants are only gaining 5.2 yppl against 5.4 yppl but their defense has played well, allowing just 4.8 yppl against 5.4 yppl. Buffalo qualifies in a couple of great situations this week. They qualify in a contrary situation, which is 298-213-11 (11-6-1 TY), including going 5-1 last week. They also qualify in another contrary situation, which plays on bad teams going on the road after playing at home, which is 109-56-5 (3-1 TY). The Giants do qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 136-54-8 (8-4-1 TY) as long as they are a favorite of four or less points. Final numbers do favor the Giants by seven points (all games) and by eight points (last five games). They also only predict about 34 points (all games) and 26 points (last five games). This game also qualifies in an under situation, which is 76-43-1. The number is a little too low for me to play the under but I lean that way. BUFFALO 17 NY GIANTS 14
BALTIMORE -3 San Francisco 37
I was very fortunate last week to get a push out of the Baltimore game. I actually won that game because I bought the three down to 2.5 but I called it a push on the record. That game last week was very evenly played. Baltimore averaged 4.3 ypr to 4.2 for Seattle. They averaged 6.4 yps to 6.1 yps for Seattle and both teams had six sacks and totaled 426 yards of offense. It's obviously very hard to take San Francisco, knowing they have played so poorly on the road, this year and in previous years (see last week's post). And with last week's loss at Green Bay, San Francisco is now 0-5 this year on the road. No question the Baltimore defense is playing well, and despite a bit of a debacle last week, they are still allowing just 4.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games, including being well above average against both, the run and the pass. They'll face a SF offense, which has been playing well as of late, averaging 5.5 yppl against 5.0 yppl over their last five games, including being well above average with both, the run and the pass. On defense, SF has slipped below average over their last five games, allowing 5.4 yppl against 5.1 yppl and being below average against both, the run and the pass. The Baltimore offense has also been below average over their last five games, gaining just 4.6 yppl against 5.0 yppl. They have been well below average throwing the ball, although getting better than their season long stats, but the rushing game has come back to earth. They are still above average rushing the ball, gaining 4.1 ypr against 3.8 ypr but that's a far cry from where they were not too long ago. It remains to be seen if the Anthony Wright to Marcus Robinson connection will continue to roll or not. Baltimore's poor defensive effort last week qualifies them in a 69-28-4 situation that plays against them here. SF also qualifies in a contrary situation, which is 298-213-11. Baltimore almost qualifies in a 75-32-3 fundamental rushing situation, which is close enough to keep me off of SF in this game. Final ratings suggest a pick 'em (all games) and SF by three (last five games). I will lean that way because of the situations and the value despite the poor performance of SF on the road this year and in the past. SAN FRANCISCO 20 BALTIMORE 17
PITTSBURGH -3 Cincinnati 41.5
I went against Cincinnati last week and lost that play but I would make that play again and still feel it was the right play. I'm still not sure how Cincinnati won that game, allowing 5.9 ypr to San Diego, 5.9 yps and 5.9 yppl, while only averaging 5.3 yppl themselves and losing the turnover battle 0-1. I guess the fact they ran 85 plays and were able to protect their defense by keeping them off the field greatly helped their team. But, I don't think they will move the ball as well this week against the much better run defense of the Steelers. The Cincinnati offense racked up 225 rushing yards at 5.0 ypr last week but they are still only averaging 4.0 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. They are throwing the ball well, averaging 6.4 yps against 5.9 yps over their last five games and will take on a Steelers defense, which is allowing 6.9 yps against 6.0 yps. The Steelers rush defense continues to play well, allowing just 3.4 ypr against 4.1 ypr over their last five games. The Steelers offense continues to play poorly, averaging just 4.5 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games. And despite winning last week's game at Cleveland, they only gained 168 yards at 2.9 yppl. But, they have a chance to play much better this week against a poor Cincinnati defense, which is allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.3 ypr, 6.5 yps against 5.7 yps and 5.7 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games. Pittsburgh has defeated Cincinnati in seven of the past ten years here in Pittsburgh and Pittsburgh qualifies in a contrary situation, which plays on teams who are not covering the spread against teams who are covering the spread. That situation is now 274-178-21 (9-3-2 TY). Remember, teams who are not covering the spread, when playing teams who are covering the spread, are very profitable investments. There's more to it than just that, but if you simply remember this, you will be a much smarter player in the future. As you would expect, final numbers support Cincinnati by three points (all games) and by five points (last five games) but I've said it before and I will say it again. The situations are much more important than the value. Think about this for a second. If teams who do not cover the spread are good investments against teams who do cover the spread, it's pretty unlikely you are ever going to get great value with these teams, when compared to your own line, because they are under performing. This game also sets up in two different under situations, which are terrific situations. Those situations are 145-72-2 (6-2 TY) and 300-223-11 (14-7 TY). My final numbers suggest about 42 points (all games) and 46 points (last five games). I can't get myself to play the under here because both teams play such poor pass defense, but that should be enough to keep you off the over in this game. PITTSBURGH 24 CINCINNATI 17
INDIANAPOLIS -4 New England 43.5
I have no situations on the side on this game but it should be a terrific game. I find it very hard to take a Colts team, laying points, knowing they are allowing 4.7 ypr against 4.1 ypr over their last five games, and allowing 125 yards per game for the whole season. NE might not be able to take full advantage of that, seeing they are gaining just 3.2 ypr against 3.8 ypr over their last five games, but Indy has allowed eight of their last nine opponents to gain at least 110 yards rushing. On the flip side, NE gained at least 105 yards rushing in four of their first five games this year but have only done it once in their last six games. That one game was last week against Houston. It took an OT to win their game last week but NE actually dominated that game, averaging 5.1 yppl to just 2.9 yppl for Houston and gaining 472 total yards to just 169 for Houston. The key match-ups for this game are the Indy passing offense, which is averaging 7.9 yps against 6.3 yps going against a NE pass defense, which is allowing just 5.1 yps against 5.6 yps over each of their last five games. On the other side, it is the NE passing offense, which has played terrific this year, averaging 7.3 yps against 5.7 yps going against an Indy pass defense, which is allowing 6.4 yps against 6.1 yps. That match-up greatly favors NE here. My ratings favor Indy by 4.5 (all games) and by only a .5 point (last five games). This game also qualifies in two outstanding under situations, which are 145-72-2 (6-2 TY) and 225-121-6 (9-4 TY). Knowing how much these two teams like to throw the ball, I have a hard time taking the under. My final numbers also show about 49 points (all games) and 50 points (last five games) thus making it even harder to take the under. But, these again, should be enough to keep you off the over. NEW ENGLAND 23 INDIANAPOLIS 20
CHICAGO -4.5 Arizona 36.5
I'm getting back on the Arizona train this week. I rode this to a cover last week but also had them two weeks ago in Cleveland, where they were blown out 6-44. As a matter of fact, they have been blown out in all five of their road games, losing by an average of 22 points per game and not coming any closer than 13 points in any road game. So, why would I take them in this game? I still feel they are a decent team and I'm just not sure Chicago is quite good enough to pull away from them here. And, of course, there are numerous situations applying to Arizona this week. Arizona continues to rush the ball well, averaging 4.2 ypr against 4.0 ypr and they played terrific last week, rushing for 166 yards at 5.5 ypr. The rush defense continues to play well too, allowing just 3.7 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. They've only allowed four teams to rush for more than 100 yards this year (St. Louis twice, Seattle and Baltimore). Chicago has allowed eight of eleven teams this year to rush for more than 100 yards and Arizona stands a chance to do it in this game if they stick to the run and avoid the turnovers. The weakness to the Arizona defense has been their pass defense, which is allowing 6.4 yps against 5.9 yps but it's doubtful a Chicago pass offense can take advantage of that. The Bears are averaging just 5.0 yps against 5.8 yps and their rushing offense hasn't been much better, gaining just 3.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr. With Chris Chandler in there, the Bears pass offense has improved some but their rushing offense has slipped some. If Chandler doesn't play this week, that will play into Arizona's hands even more, because they defend the run much better. Arizona qualifies in a great contrary situation, which is 298-213-11 (11-6-1 TY) and they qualify in my turnover table system, which is 769-597-32. That situation indicates they might be able to avoid playing turnover ball today. Arizona also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 523-402-32 (34-22-3 TY), including a subset, which is 242-138-13 (14-7-2 TY). They also qualify in another rushing situation, which is 237-160-14, including a win by Miami on Thursday. My numbers favor the Bears by four (all games) and by 8.5 points (last five games) but the situations are simply too strong to not play Arizona here. This game also qualifies in a 76-43-1 under situation. Final numbers suggest about 38 points (all games) and 31 points (last five games). I don't like going under with such a low total but that is the way to lean here. ARIZONA 20 CHICAGO 13
CAROLINA -1.5 Philadelphia 36
Philly has played great as of late, winning and covering in six straight. But, that actually sets them up in a letdown situation, which is a 62-26-4 play against situation. The Carolina defense is finally getting healthy and starting to play much better, allowing just 3.7 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 6.0 yps against 6.4 yps for a total of just 5.0 yppl against 5.3 yppl. Meanwhile, the Philly offense is also playing very well over their last five games, averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 6.0 yps against 6.0 yps, which totals out to 5.2 yppl against 5.3 yppl. That makes them just an average offense but that is pretty good considering where this offense was earlier in the year. Much will be made about the Philly rush defense, which is allowing 4.9 ypr against 4.6 ypr and taking on the Carolina rush offense, which is averaging actually just 4.3 ypr against 4.5 ypr over their last five games. It's been the Carolina passing offense, which has really excelled lately, averaging 7.1 yps against 6.1 yps. During that time, Philly is allowing just 5.1 yps against 5.7 yps. Carolina will be able to rush the ball because they commit to it and Philly hasn't done much to stop it as of late, but Carolina should also be able to throw the ball some if they wish to. Philly has allowed at least 109 yards rushing in each of their last seven games. Meanwhile, Carolina has rushed for at least 110 yards in all but three of their games. Philly also qualifies in another letdown situation, which is a 170-123-5 play against situation. Carolina is also a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32 and they qualify in a subset of that, which is 140-78-5. Carolina also qualifies in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 136-54-8 (8-4-1 TY). Final ratings suggest a 3.5 point Carolina win (all games) to a two point Philly win (last five games). Situations are simply too strong to not play Carolina here and they get the big win at home. CAROLINA 23 PHILADELPHIA 13
ST LOUIS -6 Minnesota 51
I had been waiting for this game for a few weeks now. I was anticipating a big play on both, the Rams and the over. But, now that the game is here, I have solid situations on both teams and actually a solid situation on the under, which eliminates all plays for me. You can go back to the Vikings game against San Diego, where I mentioned the horrible defensive performances the Vikings have had on the road, going back to late in the 2000 season. Nothing has changed this year with their defense, which has allowed at least 26 points in every road game but one (13 points allowed at Detroit). I've also made it a habit of going against each of these teams lately, going against the Rams each of the last two weeks and winning both, and going against the Vikings each of the past three weeks and winning all three times. The Rams have been very solid throwing the ball, averaging 6.8 yps against 6.1 yps over their last five games, but they haven't been able to run the ball very well, averaging just 3.3 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. It should be noted they have averaged 4.5 ypr and 229 yards rushing on 51 carries in their last two games. So, maybe Marshall Faulk is getting it going. And they should have plenty of success against a Vikings defense, which is allowing 5.7 ypr against 4.8 ypr and 7.1 yps against 5.5 yps over their last five games. It's been well documented how slow the Vikings are on defense and that should only be more emphasized this week against a very fast Rams offense. For Minnesota, their offense has been a little more average over the last five games, but it is still averaging 7.2 yps against 6.2 yps and 4.5 ypr against 4.2 ypr. They'll go against a Rams defense, which is allowing 4.3 ypr against 4.4 ypr and 5.5 yps against 5.5 yps. The Rams offense is a little better than average but that's head and shoulders above how bad the Vikings defense is. The Rams defense is just average, although better at home and should be able to contain the Vikings offense many more times than the Vikings defense can contain the Rams offense. Everybody saw how badly the Rams were out played in their Sunday night game against the Ravens, in which they only gained 121 total yards. But they still managed to score 33 points because of special teams and defensive scores, etc. The Rams have scored at least 27 points in every home game this year and at least 33 points in all but one home game. As said earlier, the Vikings have allowed at least 26 points in all but one road game. Minnesota has only played two above average offenses on the road this year, Green Bay (allowed 25 points) and San Diego (allowed 42 points). In the GB game, they forced five Packer turnovers, which hurt their chances of scoring. It's almost a given, barring a majority of turnovers, that the Rams will put up at least 35 points in this game. Against somewhat similar defenses on the road this year (Green Bay and Detroit - average), the Vikings have scored 30 and 23 points. If you can write the Rams down for about 35 points in this game and you know the Vikings probably aren't going to score more than about 27 points, it will be awful tough for the Vikings to cover this game. I've been going against Minnesota because I believe they are over rated and their defense isn't very good, but that was when they were laying points. This game is more like last year, when I frequently went with the Vikings, because they were getting points with their good offense. Minnesota does qualify in a terrific contrary situation, which is 108-40-5. The Vikings also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 88-28-5. But, the Rams qualify in a scheduling situation, which plays on good teams returning home after a road trip, which is 42-16-1 and they also qualify in a turnover table subset, which is 140-78-5. Final numbers do favor Minnesota but I like the situations the Rams qualify in, along with the poor performance of the Vikings on the road. As for the total, this game qualifies in a 300-223-11 under situation, which is already 14-7 this year. Final numbers suggest about 53-60 points being scored but I respect the situations much more than the numbers. Mike Tice said this week his team needs to run the ball and control the game with short passes. That means they could run some clock with their offense to keep their defense off the field. He also said he expected the Rams to try and run the ball as well and the Vikings would look to take away the run to force Mike Martz (whom he said will abandon the run very quickly) to throw the ball and take advantage of mistakes by Mark Bulger. A lot of running could result in a lower scoring game. The bottom line to this game is this. Both teams qualify in good situations and there is also a solid situation on the under. That's just opposite of what most think will happen and with the NFL being a contrarian league, this game might be best if avoided. ST LOUIS 30 MINNESOTA 17
HOUSTON -3 Atlanta 41
Interesting game here between two very poor defenses and two offenses that stand a chance to move the ball. The Atlanta defense is now allowing 4.8 ypr against 4.2 ypr and 7.7 yps against 6.4 yps over their last five games. It's not much different with the Houston defense, which is allowing 4.5 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 7.9 yps against 6.9 yps. On offense, Atlanta is running the ball very well, averaging 5.2 ypr against 4.8 ypr. They aren't throwing the ball very well, averaging just 4.6 yps against 5.5 yps but they did throw for 7.6 yps last week against Tennessee. If you take away the 86 yard screen pass to Warrick Dunn, they averaged closer to about 5.1 yps. But, that should continue to get better with Doug Johnson, who replaced Kurt Kittner last week. For Houston, they are also running the ball well, averaging 4.3 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 6.3 yps against 6.1 yps over their last five games. We have two well below average defenses and an above average offense with Houston along with a potentially above average offense with Atlanta. Yet, the total is just 41, which is one point below the average points scored in the NFL this year. There aren't many defenses as bad as these two in the league. Atlanta has played just one defense that is close to this bad and they scored 26 points against the Vikings defense. Houston has only played one defense, which is even close to this bad, and that was Cincinnati, where they scored 27 points. And the Cincinnati defense is better than this Atlanta defense. My final numbers predict about 49 points (all games) and 42 points (last five games) but some of those games were with Kurt Kittner, who absolutely couldn't throw the ball. I have no situations on either team for the side in this game but I prefer to take the points when two poor defenses play. Final ratings suggest Houston by 1.5 (all games) and three points (last five games). ATLANTA 30 HOUSTON 27
WASHINGTON -1 New Orleans 41
Total number two for the week. I was also looking for a reason to play NO in this game but I don't have quite enough ammunition to make them a play. I do like the total here. The Redskins offense isn't playing that great, averaging just 4.2 yppl against 4.6 yppl and below average with both, the run and the pass, but I think they can get something done against the Saints defense. NO is allowing 5.1 yppl against 5.1 yppl over their last five games, and that includes 5.1 ypr against 4.4 ypr. The Saints have allowed at least 100 yards rushing in all but two games this year. Washington isn't running the ball well but they have gained at least 116 yards rushing in four of their five home games this year, so they do seem to be able to move the ball at home a little more. On the other side, Washington is playing horrible defense, allowing 5.9 yppl against 5.0 yppl over their last five games, including allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 7.3 yps against 5.8 yps. The NO offense is averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.2 ypr over their last five games. The Saints have rushed for at least 100 yards in all but one game this year and the Redskins have now allowed at least 106 yards rushing in every game since their second game this year. The Redskins have also allowed at least 20 points in every game but two this year - the first game against the Jets (whose offense was horrible early on) and 17 points to NE, who turned the ball over three times. I went over in the Redskins/Seahawks game here three weeks ago with a similar total and the final ended up at 47 (27-20) and I think we stand a good chance of getting the over again. My numbers suggest 49 points (all games) and 49 points (last five games). That combined with two below average defenses, when asked to score the average points scored in the NFL this year (42 points) to get the over, looks promising. Saints also qualify as a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32. Final ratings suggest NO by one (all games) and by 7.5 points (last five games). I don't quite have enough to suggest taking NO but I will lean their way. NEW ORLEANS 30 WASHINGTON 20
SEATTLE -5.5 Cleveland 41.5
Cleveland lost last week but not because they couldn't move the ball or stop the Steelers. Cleveland amassed 303 yards of offense, at only 4.0 yppl, which is not good, but they only allowed Pittsburgh to gain 168 yards at 2.9 yppl. The biggest problem for Cleveland was five turnovers and not being able to get the ball into the endzone with four chances inside the five yard line, which is really another turnover. This week they get Seattle who comes off a tough loss at Baltimore after leading by 17 in the fourth quarter before finally losing in OT. That was a game where the refs made an error that would have won the game for Seattle, if not for their error. The Cleveland offense is still below average but they are running the ball better, averaging 4.0 ypr against 4.1 ypr over their last five games. They are still well below average throwing the ball, gaining just 4.9 yps against 6.0 yps during that same time span. But, they face a Seattle defense, which is below average, allowing 4.2 ypr against 3.9 ypr and 5.8 yps against 5.4 yps over their last five games. The Seattle offense has been good, gaining 5.7 yppl against 5.2 yppl and above average with both, the run and the pass. They'll face a Cleveland defense, which has been above average against the pass, allowing 5.7 yps against 6.0 yps, but below average against the run, allowing 4.2 ypr against 4.0 ypr. Seattle, with their poor defensive effort last week, qualifies in a negative situation, which is an 82-40-5 play against them here. Cleveland also qualifies in a bounce back situation, which is a 109-56-6 (3-1 TY) and they are a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32. Cleveland has been a competitive team this year, losing only two games by more than seven points, while Seattle doesn't win many games by blowing away their competition, with only three wins by more than seven points. I like Cleveland's competitiveness and their ability, even though the stats don't show it, to throw the ball for the back door cover, if needed. Final ratings only favor Seattle by five points (all games) and 3.5 points (last five games). The situations favor Cleveland as does the value. CLEVELAND 24 SEATTLE 21
Denver -3 OAKLAND 42
This is a game where the situations go both ways, which ultimately is a pass for me. It's hard to gauge Denver on just their last five games because three of them are without Jake Plummer, but Denver's offense wasn't that spectacular last week, at least not in the passing game, where Plummer is supposed to make the difference. They only threw for 4.2 yps last week. They did break off a couple of big runs and finished the game averaging a whopping 9.5 ypr on 200 yards rushing. But, it still resulted in only 10 points for the Broncos. Denver is running the ball well, averaging 4.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr but only throwing for 4.9 yps against 5.8 yps. Their defense continues to play well, allowing only 3.5 ypr against 4.0 ypr and 6.1 yps against 6.3 yps. That doesn't bode well for Oakland this week. Oakland's offense is banged up and not playing particularly well, averaging just 4.0 ypr against 4.3 ypr and 5.5 yps against 5.7 yps. Their defense has also been disappointing, allowing 4.6 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 6.6 yps against 6.0 yps. Denver qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32 and they also qualify in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 523-402-32 (34-22-3 TY), including a subset, which is 242-138-13 (14-7-2 TY). Denver also qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is a 159-88-8 play against them here. This total seems a little high here as my numbers only show about 37 points (all games) and 36 points (last five games). Oakland has only played one solid defense this year, and that was Denver on the road and they could only score 10 points in that game. I don't see them scoring much more than that here. DENVER 20 OAKLAND 13
Kansas City -7 SAN DIEGO 48.5
I was on SD last week and lost that game but they didn't play that badly, averaging 5.9 yppl in that game, while allowing Cincinnati to average just 5.3 yppl. Meanwhile, KC was winning barely against Oakland but they controlled the majority of that game, and gained 384 yards at 6.5 yppl. But, they also allowed a below average Oakland offense to gain 379 yards at 5.5 yppl. And such is life for the KC defense, which is now allowing 5.1 yppl against 4.9 yppl, including a whopping 5.0 ypr against 4.5 ypr over their last five games. That should sit just fine with a SD offense, which can run the ball, averaging 5.3 ypr against 4.0 ypr over their last five games. These two have historically played close games here and SD has only lost two of the past 10 games here by more than five points. I'm still not convinced KC is the best team in the league and since beating Houston badly on the road, they have now gone four straight road games where they have failed to win by more than seven points. Bad teams, at home getting more than five points, are actually a good proposition, and SD qualifies in a situation based on that, which is 56-21-1. KC also qualifies in a letdown situation, which is a 72-38-4 (3-1-1 TY) play against situation here. Chargers are also a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32 and they qualify in a subset of that, which is 122-70-4 (5-1 TY). I've also been saying it for weeks now and that is teams who are not covering the spread, when playing against teams who are covering the spread, are fantastic situations. SD qualifies in a situation based on that, which is 274-178-21 (9-3-2 TY). The Chargers also appear to be able to run the ball in this game and that sets them up in a fundamental rushing situation, which is 113-55-7 (6-3-1 TY) and 523-402-32 (34-22-3 TY), including a subset, which is 424-296-24 (26-13-1 TY). Final numbers show KC by 10 (all games) and by 8.5 (last five games) but that's before accounting for the great situations that SD qualifies in. They qualify in some great technical and fundamental situations and KC qualifies in a negative situation as well. So, we have things working in all directions for us in this game. This game also qualifies in a couple of under situations, which are 49-23 and 300-223-11. My final numbers show about 54 points and 55 points being scored so it's a little tough for me to take the under, especially with two poor defenses, but these situations should at least keep you off the over. KANSAS CITY 24 SAN DIEGO 23
Tampa Bay -3.5 JACKSONVILLE 37
TB kept their playoff hopes alive last week by defeating the Giants. Brett Favre said this week he thinks TB is still the team to beat in the NFC. They'll need some help in getting to the playoffs but TB can throw the ball and they are averaging 5.9 yps against 5.5 yps over their last five games. The defense is still playing above average, allowing just 4.8 yppl against 5.2 yppl. They'll face a Jacksonville team, which did it again last week. That is gaining more yards than their opponent and gaining more yards per play than their opponent. Last week they gained 330 yards at 4.6 yppl to just 282 for the Jets at 4.5 yppl. Turnovers, especially in the red zone did them in again. I've been saying it for weeks now that the Jacksonville defense is very under rated. They are allowing just 5.0 yppl against 5.3 yppl over their last five games 4.9 yppl against 5.2 yppl for the whole season. And remember, they have played some very good offenses, passing offenses (like Tampa Bay), including Indianapolis and Tennessee four times (twice each) and the Jets. TB has struggled on the road lately, losing their last two to Carolina and San Francisco. Jacksonville qualifies as a turnover table play, which is 769-597-32 and they qualify in three different fundamental rushing situations, which are 113-55-7 (6-3-1 TY), 523-402-32 (34-22-3 TY) and 237-165-14 (7-5 TY). Final numbers only suggest TB by 1.5 (all games) and Jacksonville by three points (last five games). This game also qualifies in two very good over situations, which are 36-12-1 (3-1 TY) and 52-21-1. My final numbers suggest about 35 and 32 points so it's a little hard to take the over, especially with two above average defenses. But, these situations should keep you off the under, as that does not appear to be the right move in this game. JACKSONVILLE 21 TAMPA BAY 17
Tennessee -1.5 NY JETS 42
I thought I finally had a win by going against Tennessee last week, but it was not to be as the Titans came charging back and I actually needed a backdoor score by Atlanta to get the push. But, I'm back on my horse again this week to go against the Titans again. The Tennessee defense is starting to play better, allowing just 4.1 ypr against 4.0 ypr but they are still allowing 5.6 yppl against 5.2 yppl because teams are having to pass on them playing catch-up ball. They'll face a Jets offense that is really starting to play great ball now. The Jets are now averaging 4.5 ypr against 4.4 ypr over their last five games and 6.7 yps against 5.9 yps during that same time span. The Jets defense is much like the Titans defense, about average, allowing 4.2 ypr against 4.1 ypr and 6.2 yps against 6.0 yps. Tennessee's offense doesn't rush the ball as well as the Jets are but they throw the ball better, averaging 3.3 ypr against 3.7 ypr and 8.6 yps against 6.4 yps. The Jets were held below 100 yards rushing last week for the first time in seven games. They allowed 100+ yards rushing for the 10th time in 11 games this year. Tennessee, who doesn't rush the ball for a very good average, is getting rushing yards out of their offense, and they ran for over 100 yards last week for the fifth time in their last six games. They have also allowed only three teams to gain 100+ yards rushing this season. Tennessee qualifies in a negative scheduling situation, which is a 159-88-8 play against them here. The Jets also qualify in a Monday night situation, which is a 61-26-2 situation. And, like I have been saying, teams that don't cover the spread, when playing teams who do cover the spread, are terrific propositions and the Jets qualify in a situation based on that, which is 274-178-19 (9-3-2 TY). Final numbers suggest a .5 point line for Tennessee (all games) and a two point line for Tennessee (last five games), before accounting for the great situations the Jets qualify in. This game also qualifies in some great under situations, which are 145-72-2 (6-2 TY) and 300-223-11 (14-7 TY). In a game with two very good passing teams and a game where my numbers suggest closer to 47 points (all games) and 57 points (last five games), I can't play the under. But, the situations are there to indicate the right play is the under. That should at least keep you off the over in this game. NY JETS 23 TENNESSEE 17
BEST BETS
YTD 43-27-5 +32.40%
3% ATLANTA/HOUSTON OVER 41
3% NEW ORLEANS/WASHINGTON OVER 41
2% ARIZONA +4.5
2% CAROLINA -1.5
2% CLEVELAND +5.5
2% SAN DIEGO +7
2% JACKSONVILLE +3.5
2% NY JETS +1.5
